In December the Federal Reserve saw enough evidence of economic strength to begin tapering its Quantitative Easing (QE3) program and markets are adjusting to this new reality. So far it has been a tough pill to swallow with emerging markets being the first to feel the pains of withdrawal.
Provided the economy performs as well as Federal Reserve policymakers expect, the Fed will phase out large-scale asset purchases within the next 10 months. That’s a big “if” of course. The Fed has been projecting a stronger recovery each of the last four years, only to see growth average around a tepid 2%.
The advent of electronic trading brought an infatuation with for-profit exchanges, while Dodd-Frank brought hope of regulatory protection for the little guys. Neither delivered in 2013 — will 2014 be any different?
2013 was a year of anticipation and perhaps disappointment. For those hoping the 2012 election would have settled some of the dysfunction in Washington, that did not happen. In fact, we doubled down on fights already settled as if there were no new business. Equity markets impressed, but few saw it as anything other than the hand of the Fed. Mercifully, the Fed signaled the beginning of the end of QE3 by year-end.
Politically, 2013 was the year of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. First the GOP followed the direction of Junior Senator Ted Cruz (R Tex.) down a dark alley in a fight they were guaranteed to lose, and, then with the GOP on the ropes, the President and his team botched the roll-out of the Affordable Care Act website. In the markets all eyes were on Federal Reserve mainly because Congress abdicated all responsibility for moving the economy forward to Ben Bernanke, who finally signaled the beginning of the end of QE3.
The Libyan Investment Authority recently sued Goldman over some 2008-vintage derivatives trades gone wrong. I wrote about it last week but didn't yet have Libya's complaint. That came out today -- here is the complaint, or in British the "Particulars of Claim" -- and it's fun reading
We believe these commodities are seen as attractive investments now not only because of their relatively low price compared to their prices last year, but also as a potential safe haven investment instead of shaky currencies around the world.